Amid ongoing regional tensions and evolving threats, Ambrey assesses persistent elevated risk to Israel-linked vessels in the Red Sea, with potential risk escalation for US, UK, and allied shipping should military actions against the Houthis or Iran resume.
As explained, the absence of attacks against shipping is assessed to primarily be related to the reality that no Israel-owned or -flagged vessels transit the area. Ambrey assesses UK and US affiliated shipping to be at reduced risk, provided neither participates in military strikes on the Houthis or Iran. The Houthis continue to launch missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles toward Israel. These attacks have led to reciprocal Israeli airstrikes against Houthi-held territory such as the ports of Hodeidah and Ras Issa.
Due to the active and ongoing Israel-Hamas and Israel-Iran conflicts, the Houthi threat to Israeli shipping is assessed to remain elevated. Merchant shipping in Houthi-controlled ports may experience collateral damage during airstrikes. Israeli military strikes against Iran have made a resumption of targeting US and UK assets in the Red Sea a higher likelihood, and a realistic possibility within a timeframe of a transit. This means that the risk could significantly deteriorate whilst enroute, Ambrey informs.
This is because the US is almost certainly preparing military options for strikes on Iran. Israeli strikes have not degraded all nuclear sites, and American support would likely be required. The UK has also positioned military assets in support of allies. Therefore, Ambrey finds that involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict cannot be ruled out. Offensive military operations against Iran are assessed to increase the risk to related shipping in the Red Sea, as it is probable the Houthis would resume operations against US assets in support of Iran.
Mitigation measures
- Affiliation checks against the Houthi target profile to understand the perceived affiliations of your fleet/vessel: Ambrey recommends a thorough affiliation check as part of a transit risk assessment is performed for Red Sea and Gulf of Aden voyages. Ambrey continues to adjust these as per the developing intent and threat.
- Avoid transiting the southern Red Sea, Bab al Mandeb and Gulf of Aden if there is an affiliation with Israel.
- Limit aggregate risk exposure if there is an affiliation with the US, UK, or another country that may participate in military strikes on Iran.
- Shipping with a European Union (EU) affiliation is advised to engage with EU NAVFOR Operation ASPIDES.
- An EU flag, ownership, cargo, operator, or insurance is likely to be considered an EU affiliation.
- Ambrey advises that where there is a realistic possibility of targeting, close protection services should be requested.
- Merchant shipping assessed to be at heightened risk is advised to carry out Ship Security Assessments tailored to the threat, and to implement recommended and proportionate ship protection measures, including Private Armed Security Teams, before sailing.
- Bridge support: Unarmed advisors to prepare and reassure crew and assist with military liaison.
- Digital operations can also support with route planning, voyage preparation, and keep the bridge and shore staff informed of any changes in risk while enroute.
