According to Gibson Shipbrokers, long-standing tensions between Israel and Iran escalated sharply overnight, creating immediate effects across tanker markets.
Israel has signaled that further attacks are planned, while the United States, although denying direct involvement, has warned that more intense strikes could follow unless Iran agrees to a nuclear deal. Talks with Iran are tentatively scheduled for this coming weekend, but it remains uncertain whether they will proceed.
Given the likelihood of continued hostilities and potential retaliation from Iran, it’s important to consider how the tanker markets might be affected.
One extreme scenario is Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz. While a prolonged closure is highly unlikely, even a short-term disruption could have severe consequences for global oil trade, Gibson highlights. Roughly 20 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude and refined products transit the strait, volumes that cannot be fully replaced or rerouted through pipelines.
Furthermore, a closure could initially cause tanker rates to surge, but prolonged disruption would reduce cargo volumes, negatively impacting tanker earnings and driving up global energy prices. Given the strait’s importance to regional and global economies, any closure would likely be brief.
However, a more plausible scenario involves Iran disrupting shipping through targeted harassment, limited attacks, or vessel hijackings. Such activity would likely deter some shipowners from operating in the region, reducing available tonnage and increasing freight rates for exports via Hormuz.
According to Gibson, this could shift demand toward safer loading zones, such as those in the Atlantic and support higher oil prices, potentially reversing the recent decline in U.S. production. In this case, Middle East exports would largely continue, while alternative producers and freight markets could benefit.
Moreover, Iran might also escalate proxy actions through the Houthis, increasing attacks on Red Sea shipping or directly targeting Israel. However, the Houthis’ current capabilities remain uncertain following U.S. efforts to degrade their operational strength. Regardless, heightened caution in the Red Sea is expected, with UK-flagged vessels already being advised to avoid the area.
According to Gibson, by early next week, the situation should become clearer, whether Israel follows through with more strikes, whether diplomacy gains traction and how Iran is likely to respond.
