New orders for ships declined sharply in early 2025 to historically low levels as shipowners hesitate to make long-term investments amid growing uncertainty, according to Drewry.
The subdued ordering activity is expected to continue until at least October 2025, with only a gradual recovery anticipated afterward and a more significant rebound likely from 2028. The trade outlook remains uncertain due to geopolitical disruptions, ongoing tariff wars, especially involving the US, and concerns over Chinese-built vessels, alongside unclear global regulatory environments such as the IMO’s Net Zero Framework (IMO NZF).
According to Drewry, US tariff wars and the potential for restrictions on ordering from Chinese shipyards, currently paused by a temporary suspension of proposed fines have added to the unpredictability, causing many shipowners to delay commitments.
Furthermore, the fundamental driver behind the slowdown is the regulatory uncertainty reshaping the shipping industry, particularly regarding future environmental compliance and carbon pricing mechanisms.
The IMO NZF meeting in October 2025 may provide some clarity, but meaningful momentum in new orders is unlikely until after 2027, when emissions penalties and incentives for Zero or near-Zero (ZNZ) fuel technologies become clearer, allowing shipowners to make confident decisions about future investments, Drewry highlighted.
